299. Why Make Predictions? (and How)

<p>Making, recording, and evaluating predictions is a simple way to improve your thinking and decision-making. But the way to properly make and record predictions isn’t obvious. In this article, I’ll share some predictions I’ve made, what I’ve learned, and how you can improve your thinking by making predictions.</p> <p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --></p> <h3>Making predictions has grown my business</h3> <p><!-- /wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p> <p>Five years ago, I had been running my business for <a href= "https://kadavy.medium.com/ive-been-a-self-employed-independent-creator-for-10-years-i-don-t-recommend-it-a2ecc92d81a9"> ten years</a>, and it wasn’t going great. Then, I started publishing monthly <a href= "https://kadavy.net/blog/archive/income-reports/">income reports</a>, and along the way, making predictions. My income has nearly doubled, and I attribute much of that success to my habit of making predictions.</p> <p>I began by predicting how much money I’d make in a product launch, and grew to predicting how much traffic articles I had written would gain, and how many copies books I’d written would sell. I now routinely make predictions for things as seemingly mundane as whether I’ll enjoy a conference, whether I’ll still be publishing on TikTok a year from now, or <a href= "https://kadavy.net/blog/posts/avocado-challenge/">whether an avocado is ripe</a>.</p> <p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p> <p>On the surface, making predictions seems like a pointless game. This is, indeed, true of making predictions the wrong way. But making predictions the right way helps you deal with uncertainty you otherwise have no hope of handling.</p> <p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --></p> <h3>Predictions help you bet your life, better</h3> <p><!-- /wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p> <p>Each of us has limited resources, such as time, money, and mental energy. We’re constantly making decisions about how to use these