27: Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Better Governance

Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how predictions markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.<br/><br/><a target="_blank" href="https://manifold.markets/">Manifold Markets</a>: https://manifold.markets/<br/><br/>Watch on <a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/XoRXrnHg084">YouTube</a>: <br/><br/>Follow me on <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp">Twitter</a>: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp<br/><br/>Timestamps:<br/><br/>(0:00:00) - Introduction<br/><br/>(0:02:29) - Predicting the future<br/><br/>(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information<br/><br/>(0:06:20) - Potentials<br/><br/>(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets<br/><br/>(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing<br/><br/>(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process<br/><br/>(0:14:52) - Grugett&#8217;s opinion about insider trading<br/><br/>(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market<br/><br/>(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators<br/><br/>(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets<br/><br/>(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets<br/><br/>(0:26:10) - Grugett&#8217;s Profile Background/Experience<br/><br/>(0:28:49) - User Result Market<br/><br/>(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism<br/><br/>(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars<br/><br/>(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets<br/><br/>(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings<br/><br/>(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">www.dwarkeshpatel.com</a>