262 | How to Decide | Annie Duke

<ul> <li>Annie Duke is a world champion poker player and author of <em><a href="https://www.choosefi.com/thinking-in-bets" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">Thinking in Bets</a></em>, a book which makes the case for embracing uncertainty in our decision-making framework. In Annie's latest book, <em><a href= "https://choosefi.com/decide" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices</a></em>, she answers the question, what does a good decision-making process look like and how to incorporate that into your own life.</li> <li>The only way we can become better at making decisions is from our own experience, and our experience is going to be the outcomes of past decisions we've made. We need to understand the way in which knowing how something turned out can mess with our ability to figure out why.</li> <li>In a thought experiment concerning the 2015 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and the Patriots, Annie reviews a play called by Pete Carroll in the last seconds of the game. Though widely panned as the worst play called in Super Bowl history, Annie states that it's hard to evaluate the quality of the play called when we already know the outcome.</li> <li>Had the outcome of Pete Carroll's play been a touchdown, the reaction would have been the opposite. This phenomenon is called Resulting, where the quality of the result is attributed the quality of the decision.</li> <li>Reviewing the actual odds of the result of that specific play, Annie determines that Pete Carroll's decision was far from the worst play called of all time as there was only a 25 likelihood of that specific result.</li> <li>Annie applies what she's learned playing poker, specifically realizing that what you see happen doesn't change the decision that you make, to other aspects of life.</li> <li>The paradox of experience is that while we know we need all of these experiences to learn, we see how things unfold and we take our lessons for individual experiences, not in the aggregate.</li> <li>Poker has some surprising