245. The Avocado Challenge: Tell The Future

<p>It’s hard to predict the future, but you can be better at predicting the future.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>All you need is a few delicious avocados.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>Even the “experts” are bad at predicting the future</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Wharton professor Phillip Tetlock wanted to make the future easier to predict. So he held “forecasting tournaments,” in which experts from a variety of fields made millions of predictions about global events.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Tetlock found that experts are no better at predicting the future than dart-throwing chimps. In fact, the more high-profile experts – the ones who get invited onto news shows – were the worst at making predictions.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>But, Tetlock found that some people are really great at telling the future. He calls them <a href= "https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00RKO6MS8?tag=kadavyinc-20">“Superforecasters”</a>, and regardless of their area of expertise, they consistently beat the field with their predictions.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Tetlock also found that with a little training, people can improve their forecasting skills. The superforecasters in Tetlock’s <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/">Good Judgement Project</a> – people from all backgrounds working with publicly-available information – make forecasts 30% better than intelligence officers with access to classified information.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>Creative work is uncertain. Does it have to be?</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>As someone working in the <a href= "https://kadavy.net/blog/posts/black-swan-summary/">“Extremistan”</a> world of creative work, I’m always trying to improve my forecasting skills. If I publish a tweet, how many likes will it get? If I write a book, how many copies will it sell?</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Th