2023 ending with a whimper

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news the world's economy seems to be ending the year in a flat funk. Momentum has leaked away and financial markets are sensing a fairly bleak 2024.</p><p>However American <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/12/06/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>mortgage applications</strong></a> rose by +2.8% last week from the prior week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly increase and pushing applications to their highest level in ten weeks. Helping was the continuing fall in home loan interest rates with the benchmark 30 year fixed rate now down to 7.35% plus points.</p><p>Private businesses in the US hired <a href="https://adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com/artifacts/us_ner/20231206/ADP_NATIONAL_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT_Press_Release_2023_11%20FINAL.pdf?_ga=2.16742582.167053753.1701883059-1139889156.1701883059" target="_blank"><strong>+103,000 workers in November</strong></a>, below a downwardly revised +106,000 in October and well below the expectation of +130,000. That is according to the ADP survey. The November result brought the expected rise in services hiring, but an unexpected fall in manufacturing job levels. However, expectations for Saturday's (NZT) non-farm payrolls have firmed and are now at a +180,000 gain.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>exports</strong></a> of goods and services came in little different in October than September (-1.0%), but were +1.3% higher than year-ago levels.</p><p>In Canada, they too delivered a hawkish hold in their overnight <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/mpr-2023-10-25/" target="_blank"><strong>monetary policy decision</strong></a>. They held its target for the overni