#153 Hope Is A Thing With Feathers*

India Policy Watch: Prediction Time<br/><br/>Insights on burning policy issues in India<br/><br/>&#8212; RSJ<br/><br/>Happy New Year! <br/><br/>This is a time of hope, optimism and new beginnings. But 2022 has signalled it has no time for such niceties. It is already hitting high notes on all kinds of wrong metrics - peak COVID-19 positivity rates, deeper social polarisation and dangerous levels of toxicity on social media. And it is only the first week. Maybe 2022 intends to get all the bad news out early and then coast on calm waters. That&#8217;s the hope.&#160;<br/><br/>Hope, like Andy Dufresne taught us, is a good thing; maybe the best of things. We write this newsletter because we are hopeful about the future. We believe we can make an impact, however small, on the demand side of the policy equation. That making people aware of policy choices and helping them anticipate the unintended will lead to a change in the supply side of politics. There are two preconditions for this to happen which we have assumed to hold true. One, people have time and mental space available for discussions that matter to their lives. Two, a belief we can arrive at what&#8217;s good for us through those debates and discussions. <br/><br/>But there are days when you wonder if these hold. The cacophonous noise on issues of identity, validity and nationalism drowns all other conversations. There&#8217;s no conceding of ground regardless of the merits of an issue. Any factoid that questions your existing hypothesis isn&#8217;t seen as worthy of contemplation. The more perceptive might register a mild dissonance. Instead, you wait for your side to dig out a counter that reconfirms your bias and negates the dissonance. Politics is often considered to be performative for the audience that&#8217;s the electorate. Now, the audience has donned the makeup and is declaiming on stage. The possibility of consensus on what&#8217;s good is increasingly remote. And once you are in this territory, the public part of public policy goes out of the win