Benchmark yields jump again

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news benchmark UST yields are rising fast again but the rate inversions are unwinding just as fast.</p><p>But first up, we should note that the World Bank has cut its forecast for <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/5620cb1a-0b68-4a83-91c1-d8d701910a7f/content" target="_blank"><strong>2024 growth</strong></a> in the Chinese economy sharply, down from +4.8% it forecasted in April, to now +4.4%. Its expectation for 2023 remains +5.1%, so the 2024 deceleration is substantial for China. Their property sector is getting most of the blame.</p><p>In the US, the widely-watched <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/september/" target="_blank"><strong>ISM factory survey</strong></a> came in much 'better' than expected in September, building on an improvement that started in July. The sector is still contracting the report shows, but only just and the improvement from August was marked. New order levels remained flat, but production rose into expansion territory.</p><p>The parallel <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2e05e860dd7e4bdaaca625049e1c826a" target="_blank"><strong>Markit PMI survey</strong></a>, the internationally benchmarked version, delivered a very similar result for the US, both showing that employment remained strong (expansionary). But the carmaker strike is going to hurt October. And Tesla <a href="https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023" target="_blank"><strong>said</strong></a> for the first time in more than a year, its global deliveries to customers fell quarter over quarter, by -6.7%. And at these levels they are lower than the lowered expectations t