The Implications of World War I on US Nuclear Policy

Because of the monumental destructive force of nuclear weapons, no theory of international relations is more important than that which guides US nuclear policy. During the Cold War, the views of Thomas Schelling and Herman Kahn dominated the debate. Overall, both theorists had confidence in deterrence, felt it was predictable, and based their reasoning on a rational opponent. Still, they each drew different conclusions, with the United States adopting Kahn’s recommendation for a strong offense, while siding with Schelling’s view that defense was not needed. While Cold War deterrence achieves a passing mark for preventing nuclear war, an examination of the causes of World War I shows the shortcomings of the Schelling and Kahn tautology. Some of the primary factors leading to World War I -- the psychology of the Kaiser, the inflexibility of military plans, honor and prestige, and diversionary tactics -- show the flaws in Cold War deterrence and provide a basis for formulating a more effective nuclear deterrent strategy. The present move towards a nuclear strategy based on the unreliability of deterrence, and therefore involving the need for defenses, capabilities based planning, and preemption, addresses the flaws of Cold War thinking.Read more